Most Wall Street economists do not believe in a rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the September meeting. However, writes Financial Times, if such a decision will still be made, it would be the strongest shock of all Janet Yellen’s presidency, from February 2014.
Friday’s statement by two Fed officials caused equity and bond markets the most significant drop since June 24 – Brexit.
Only 13% of the 46 economists surveyed by Financial Times, are waiting for a move at Fed’s next meeting. In an independent survey of The Wall Street Journal, this figure is also 13%. However, some experts believe that traders underestimate the Fed’s determination.
“Given recent statements by Fed officials, who began to signal that a rate hike in the short term is appropriate, we believe that the market is too calm,” – say Goldman Sachs economists.
The next meeting of the Federal Reserve will be held September 20-21.
According to Fed Watch CME, traders estimate the probability ta 24% for a hike in September, in November – to 28.7% and in December to 59.3%. On Bloomberg: 32% in September, November 36% and 60% in December.
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