FXStreet (Barcelona) – FX Strategists at TD Securities offer the outlook for EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, NOK and the CAD, expecting further downside in the single currency.
Key Quotes
“We view recent events as EUR negative though the common currency is holding in remarkably well (EURUSD sitting around 1.1035 a time of writing). Markets may be waiting for the conclusion of the Hollande-Merkel meeting later today which would likely set the tone moving forward. Nonetheless, we still see the traditional safe haven playbook unfolding with USD and JPY as the prime beneficiaries if a Grexit becomes a base case scenario and in such a circumstance we think EURJPY is likely the best bet as the leveraged community has pared back its net EUR shorts opening downside potential if a deal is not reached.”
“On EURUSD, short-term moving average crossovers are bearish right now in EURUSD with the 10-DMA breaking below the 55-DMA, which could see momentum players pull EURUSD lower on a negative outcome later this week.”
“We look for commodity intensive currencies to be vulnerable to underperformance, and thus far NOK has been the weakest performer versus the majors especially versus the EUR. The CAD has lagged the move but with WTI down nearly 4.3% on the session at time of writing, the bias will be for the CAD to slide.”
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