Forex Technical Analysis: EUR, GBP, JPY
Euro (EUR)
The Euro traded in a tight range Friday within daily 100-Day MA and daily cloud that marks initial range.
The lower boundary was cracked but not broken to confirm Southside resumption and open next support at 1.0992.
The near-term structure is negative and sees more weakness.
Bearish resumption through the 100-Day MA and cloud base will face the week’s low at 1.0952, the short term support is at 1.0818 is expected to come in focus on further acceleration South.
Conversely, daily close above Ichimoku cloud top, would ease immediate Southside risk, while return above falling daily 10-Day MA at 1.1167, willprovide relief and focus daily 20-Day MA break point at 1.1232.
Lower volumes were seen due to the US markets being shut for Independence Day, and uncertainty ahead of Sunday’s Greek referendum. Traders are cautions.
Resistance: 1.1140, 1.1167, 1.1193, 1.1232
Suppport: 1.1039, 1.1016, 1.0992, 1.0952
Great British Pound (GBP)
Cable finished Thursday’s trading in long-legged Doji, indicating hesitation on approach to 1.5548, 50% of 1.5168/1.5928 rally / daily Kijun-sen line, as Thursday’s dip was contained at 1.5560.
Confirming 1.5548/60 as strong near-term support zone.
Prolonged consolidation is expected, as near-term sees a Neutral to Bearish mode, daily outlook sees a Bullish tone, but conflicting daily MA’s suggest no clear direction.
Loss of 1.5548 handle would soften near-term outlook for further correction and expose next strong support zone and breakpoints at 1.5454, daily 55/200-Day MA’s Golden Cross and daily Ichimoku cloud top at 1.5442.
Daily 20-Day MA caps at 1.5657, with daily close above, required to dampen Southside risk in here.
Resistance: 1.5638, 1.5657, 1.5700, 1.5729
Support: 1.5586, 1.5560, 1.5548, 1.5500
Japanese Yen (JPY)
JPY consolidates around 123 handle, following Thursday’s recovery rejection at 123.70 and pullback, triggered by disappointing US jobs data. The move is seen as corrective action, with 123 support zone required to hold, for fresh attempts North.
Near-term technicals are Neutral, daily observations are mixed and contracting 20-d Bollingers, suggest extended consolidation.
As of Thursday’s probe above descending daily 20-Day MA, was seen as false move, this now marks 1st resistance at 123.33, with close above required to signal fresh rallies.
Moves above Thursday’s high at 123.70 are needed to confirm and pivotal tops at 124.36/42. Sans that, expect further easing and renewed pressure at 122 the pivotal support, on sustained break of 123 handle.
Resistance: 123.33, 123.70, 124.00, 124.36
Support: 122.79, 122.34, 122.00, 121.82
Res: 123.33, 123.70, 124.00, 124.36
Sup: 122.79, 122.34, 122.00, 121.82
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After finding a trading system that works for you, the more cryptic and esoteric fields of study can then be incorporated into your technical and trading toolbox.The bottom line when utilizing any type of analytical method, technical or otherwise, is to hold to the basics, which are methodologies with a proven track record over a long period.
Technical analysis is a method of forecasting price movements by looking at purely market-generated data. Price data from a particular market is most commonly the type of information analyzed by a technical trader.
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Paul Ebeling
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