Forex technical analysis: NZ trade data could help push the NZDUSD

Est -825M vs -1035M last.  Exports 3.9B vs 3.72B. Imports 4.78B vs 4.77B
The NZ Trade balance will be released at 2145 GMT/5:45 PM ET. The expectations are for a -825M deficit.  A weaker than expected release should weaken the NZD/USD, while a stronger should strengthen the currency.  Be careful though as the mix of exports and imports is also important. For example, if both are stronger than expected but the deficit is also greater, it could be more bullish for the currency anyway.  Also the RBNZ does announce there interest rate decision on Thursday (local time/ Wednesday US time). The official cash rate is expected to remain unchanged.  However, if there is a big surprise from the baseline case, there could some significant movement one way or the other.