While all eyes are afixed to this week’s Brexit vote – and the surge in bookies’ odds (relative to poll data) – Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow reminds traders that “no event remains ‘most important’ forever.”
Britain’s EU referendum is obviously the biggest news of the week. But the rest of the world hasn’t stopped turning. It just seems that way for the moment watching markets chase behind the U.K. newsflow.
It’s a mistake, however, to project the rest of the year or even the next quarter, based on one event. There’s even a chance, a real one, that the referendum will look like yesterday’s news before the end of the month.
How many times over the years have you heard, “this is the most important election, number, referendum or geo-political event of our time?” Now name them.
The EU is properly feeling relieved this morning that momentum going into the final days of the campaign is shifting their way. The Italian regional elections that took place yesterday should remind them that Euroscepticism is a symptom of a wider discontent that goes way beyond the borders of one country.
Growth surprises in China or the U.S. remain huge unknowns. The utter uncertainty surrounding economic trajectory of the world’s two biggest economies is nothing short of extraordinary and worrying.
Look at January versus February versus April markets to remind yourself this isn’t a one-issue world: even if a correlated one.
I’d even suggest that Chair Yellen is likely to begin the march back from the latest dove lurch at anytime. Especially if the U.K. bookies are right, the next payrolls report is okay and the S&P 500 flirts with new highs. Then what “current regime” will Mr. Bullard describe?
If there’s one lesson we never learn, it’s that no one is any good at forecasting oil prices. Before penciling in the next 15% move in equities, it’s well worth contemplating commodities.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Rajan’s news over the weekend puts into question just what’s likely to be the economic and political outlook for the world’s fastest growing big economy.
Great Britain may be an island, but the global economy isn’t. You can’t assume away the rest of the world…
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