- Tonight we get the much anticipated BoC policy decision and MPR. RBC Capital Markets is calling for a 25bp cut to the overnight rate (to 0.50%).
- BoC officials have not yet messaged a dovish shift in their outlook, and that has left expectations around this decision the most finely balanced in recent memory.
- A cut should see USD/CAD decently and sustainably higher, while no cut with a strong dovish signal would likely see a smaller dip that does not last long.
- USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.2761, with a high of 1.2764 and a low of 1.2747.
- Immediate resistance is seen at 1.2804 (July 14th high), while 1.2700 (4h 50 MA) offers support on the downside.
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