For your daily dose of daily Gartman zen (and humor), we provide the following update, according to which the commodity expert, who just two days after flipping from net short to “marginally net long“, once again proclaims it to be a “bear market then”… as he then proceeds to report that he is “net long.”
SHARE PRICES CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD SPIRAL as eight of the ten markets comprising our International Index have fallen over the course of the past twenty four hours and of those eight, four were down by more than 1% and of those four two were down by more than 2% with European equites again leading the way lower. For the year-to-date then stocks in global terms are down 3.6% while stocks here in the US are 1.5%. Just for comparison’s sake we note that stocks in Germany as measured by the DAX Index are 11.4%; that stocks in Japan are 016.4% [sic] and that stocks in Brazil are actually quite strong and are up 13.2%. International noncorrelation anyone?
Further, it is worth noting that since the peak in the global equity market in late May of ’15, stocks as measured by our International Index are down a very material 17.7%. This is a bear market then, although many shall not consider it to be so until such time as share prices are down 20%. They soon shall have no choice but to accept that as fact.
We are up 2.9% year-to-date here at TGL in our retirement funds and we are entering today’s markets long of steel and long of a high-tech, “cloud” related company while we are short of sufficient derivatives positons to have our net market exposure very, very slightly net long, with emphasis upon both the “very” and “slightly.” We are also long of gold in EUR and Yen related terms, but again those are currency/commodity positions even though we count them in our performance over-all.
Finally, what is it that makes Gartman’s investing decisions for him ? The CNN “fear and greed” Index.
One by one, trend lines that might have been pointing upward, from the lower left to the upper right, are being broken through from above, signaling bearish trends of their own. With the CNN Fear & Greed Index now at 50, down from 80 only mid-week last week, our fear that stock prices will weaken materially from this point on is very real indeed. We’ll not err bullishly of stocks until such time as this CNN index has gotten well below 25 and has turned higher from there. Then and only then will we consider owning shares outright; until then we shall cast a bearish net.
… Even though he is “net long” right now.
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