If Friday’s selloff can be indirectly – and humorously – blamed on Gartman being “pleasantly” long of equities going into the rout, then perhaps a rebound looms, because as DG writes in his latest note, he quickly went “net short” of equities moments after realizing the momentum is not with him. Here is the key section from his latest note:
SHARE PRICES, GLOBALLY, ARE DOWN VIOLENTLY AND “RISK HAPPENS FAST” as already noted several times above as our old friend, Doug Kass, likes to tell us, for all ten of the markets comprising our International Index have fallen since Friday, with 5 of the 10 having fallen by more than 2% and with one… the market in Brazil… having fallen by nearly 4%. Trend lines that had been sloping upward in instance after instance and which had held for months have been broken through to the downside, proving themselves to be readily vulnerable. “Reversals,” one after another, have evolved, and not merely daily reversals, but in many instances weekly and now even monthly reversals to the downside have either already evolved or are on the verge of doing so.
Risk does indeed happen fast, with the blame today going to be cast upon the Federal Reserve Bank for the thought that it may actually vote to tighten monetary policy at its meeting next week. We have never been of the mindset that the Fed was prepared to tighten policy and to raise the o/n Fed Funds rate next week, but many were and more had become so following Mr. Rosengren’s comments on Friday that he was beginning to err toward tighter policies… this from one of the more “dovish” of the voting, regional Federal Reserve Presidents. That was all that was needed to change the market’s collective psychology at a moment’s notice, and although we are quite certain that the global market’s bearish rush shall quell any further consideration on the part of various FOMC voting participants about tighter policies, it shall not likely make any difference; the die’s been cast and risk has indeed happened fast.
We shall not mince words here today: on Friday we came into the market “pleasantly” long of equities, being long of aluminium, hedged to a great degree with “derivatives” in place, and long of gold in EUR denominated terms; however within minutes of the opening we quickly shifted our positions for something seemed to us to be amiss… and clearly was. Something seemed not right; the market was not acting bullishly despite having made new highs only a few days earlier. Volume was coming in on the downside, not on the “up” and trend lines that had been inviolate were being violated instead. We reduced our aluminium position by selling some of the shares outright and by then selling near-the-money calls against the rest of the positon. We added to our “derivatives” position aggressively and we even bought out-of-the-money puts in the SPY. By mid-morning we were… and we still are… net short of equities. We changed our position that much and that quickly. We had no choice:
Looking at futures, the rebound off the lows may have already started.
The post Gartman: “We Came Into Friday “Pleasantly” Long Of Equities. We Quickly Changed Our Position” appeared first on crude-oil.top.