GBPUSD & EURGBP post BoE
BoE Vote split comes in at 6 – 3
BoE keeps rates and asset purchases unchanged at 0.50% and 435bln respectively.
– Vote was 6-3 in favour of unchanged Bank Rate, unanimous for QE at 435B/APF at 10B
– Haldane, McCafferty and Saunders dissented, voting instead for a June hike
– Majority on MPC still reassured Q1 softness was largely temporary, but preferred to wait for further data on economy
– Dissenters saw greater likelihood erratic Q1 growth would rebound, saw upside risk to wage inflation
– MPC will not reduce stock of QE until Bank Rate reaches 1.5% (prev 2%)
– Reduction in QE stock will be at a gradual and predictable pace; over number of years
– Ongoing tightening of MonPol remains appropriate over forecast horizon
– UK economy to develop in line with May QIR forecast
– Global data since May QIR was mixed, financial conditions had tightened