FXStreet (Guatemala) – Analysts at BNZ noted the forthcoming GDT dairy auction to brace for while the next trading event is event 144 15 July 2015 12:00 UTC.
Key Quotes:
“The signs are still not good, especially after the recent ructions in financial and commodity markets, and China’s prominence in them. It all adds more downward pressure to a market suffering the perfect storm of ongoing supply expansion, soft demand, and trade embargoes. As such we lower our 2015/16 milk price forecast to $4.70 per kilogram of milksolids (from the $5.20 we landed on a fortnight ago). There are many fast moving components influencing international dairy prices at present. Currently, we think $4.70 is best aligned to the middle of a very wide Dairy Auction Prices – GDT range of possible outcomes when the season’s figures are finalised in over 12 months’ time.”
“We wonder if Fonterra will review its $5.25 forecast before the end of July.”
“Not that we have heard anything one way or the other, but the co-op has given a very late July update in both of the past two years. Of course, much could change between now and the end of the season not only in the international financial and commodity markets, but also weather wise as we watch El Nino conditions continue to strengthen. The latter is a looming risk to pastoral agriculture production this coming spring/summer season.”
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