In February, the German trade surplus is expected to have amounted to €18.9bn, up from €15.9bn in January. Exports are expected to have declined by 0.6% mom, following the larger than expected decline in January (-2.1%), while imports are expected to have increased by 0.4%, boosted by strong domestic consumption.While trade data remains suppressed, temporary weakness in China linked to the New Year has probably distorted data to some extent. Exports in Q1 thus looks set to be much weaker than what could have been expected in view of the significant weakening of the euro to date. Imports should benefit from the ongoing strengthening in German domestic demand, coming from robust real income growth, lower oil prices, and favourable financing conditions.
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