FXStreet (Delhi) – Analysts team at TDS, notes that the global investor’s fraternity is taking a cautious approach ahead of the impending ECB decision and the quarterly Staff Macroeconomic Projections, which is scheduled later today.
Key Quotes
“It was a quieter session than usual with China out today (and tomorrow) and investors side-lined ahead of the ECB today and US payrolls tomorrow. The USD strength has flowed through into Asia, +0.15%, Asian equities are generally firmer, but commodities remain a touch softer. Weaker Australian retail sales has seen the AUD once again flirt with the US$0.70 level, the worst G10 performer today, -0.3%.”
“The September interest rate decision comes out alongside the quarterly Staff Macroeconomic Projections. Recent commodity price declines, coupled with a likely-delayed rate hike by the Fed that should be supportive for the EUR through the end of this year, suggest downside risks to the inflation forecast. But we think that September is too soon to see major downward revisions, so don’t expect a change in policy this week.”
“That said, active jawboning is likely, and we can’t entirely rule out the possibility of additional easing (see Trading the ECB). Moving towards the end of the year, however, there is likely to be ample risk for the ECB to loosen its policy stance via more aggressive QE.”
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