Gold Seen Higher (Bullish), Crude Oil Seen Lower (Bearish)

$GLD, $OIL, $USO

Gold in sideways consolidation from 1263.9 short term top last week and outlook is Bullish.

A clear break of 1263.9 targets resistance at 1307.8 next.

A clear break of 1181.04/16 brings a deeper pull back to 61.8% Fibo retracement at 1128.9.

The bigger picture

The current development indicates a medium term bottom formed at 1045.4. The rebound from there is expected to extend higher to test Key resistance at 1307.8.

A clear break there is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, treat price actions from 1045.4 as developing into a medium term sideways pattern. A strong break of 1307.8 should bring a move North to 38.2% Fibo of 1923.7 to 1045.4 at 1380.9.

The long term picture

Gold is still limited by 55-Month MA and so, the correction from 1923.7 is in favor to enter 681/1033.9 support zone, with 61.8% Fibo retracement of 253.2 to 1923.7 at 891.3 inside.

But, a break of 1307.8 will argue that Gold has strong support from 1033.9 and the pattern from 1923.7 would extend sideways instead.

COMEX Gold Continuous Contract Weekly Chart

On Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil price rebound from 26.05 extended North last week, but has not taken out 34.82 resistance so far.

It is limited well below the Key resistance at 38.39 and the outlook is unchanged: Bearish

Price actions from 26.19 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. In case of another rise, strong resistance is expected at 38.9 to limit any Northside move, and bring down trend resumption.

A clear break of the Key support at 26.05 confirms this Bearish case and targets 21.98 next.

The bigger picture

The medium term down trend in Crude Oil is in progress with fall from 107.73 as the 3rd leg of the pattern from 147.27 high.

The Key support at 33.2 was broken and there is no sign of bottoming.

Current decline might extend to 61.8% Fibo projection of 107.73 to 42.03 from 62.58 at 21.98.

17.12/37.00 is still seen as a Key long term support zone and Crude Oil would likely find it hard to accelerate lower inside this region.

Will look for a bottoming signal below the psych mark at 30. This Bearish view will remain as long as 37.75 support turned resistance holds.

The long term picture

Crude Oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, no change here. The current down trend could extend lower, but expect strong support from 17.12/37.0 support zone to contain the Southside.

NMEX Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart

Stay tuned…

Paul Ebeling

HeffX-LTN