Themes for H2 include volatility
, judging by our client conversations and as reflected in low price volatility across major markets. Factors behind the lull include a lack of a clear trend in the economic data, and uncertainty around some key upcoming policy outcomes, which will affect one another. Among these the UK referendum on EU membership, and potential spill-overs into the rest of the Euro area; Fed policy, and the guidance that the Fed will want to associate with the next hike;China’s management of the CNY/USD as the effects of the credit stimulus wane, and the quantum and synergies between further fiscal and monetary expansions in Japan.
