FXStreet (Delhi) – Lefteris Farmakis, Research Analyst at Nomura, suggests that the short-term risks relating to the prospects of the anti-MoU/anti-euro vote are very small, while medium-tern risks regarding political developments look generally contained.
Key Quotes
“The signing of the ESM programme by the SYRIZA/ANEL government has had important positive consequences for the prospects of political stability in Greece.”
“The main messages from the first wave of polls released over the weekend are as follows: a) the race for first place looks close, with SYRIZA maintaining a slim lead of 2 to 3 points; b) the first party looks unlikely to gain more than 30% of the total vote, making the attainment of an absolute majority very hard; c), fragmentation has increased with up to nine parties projected to enter the next parliament; and d) pro-euro parties are projected to gain a very large percentage of the total vote.”
“While the balance of risks for SYRIZA is probably tilted towards Alexis Tsipras’ party doing worse than polls indicate, there is currently no indication that anti-MoU/anti-euro parties should capture a very large share of the popular vote or unite under a solid antieuro front.”
“Finally, it is worth noting that the GGB market has been relatively immune to recent global risk concerns, as investors seem more focused on the political normalisation already under way.”
(Market News Provided by FXstreet)