Greece: The Consequences Of A ‘No’ Vote Sunday

“We are asking them to vote with their eyes open and think hard about all the consequences of a ‘No’ vote, which could lead Greece to leave the Eurozone,” French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said on the sidelines of an economic summit in Lyon, France Thursday.

The comment reflected the fear of many in the Eurozone that a Greek exit would change the nature of a 15-yr-old currency union intended to be unbreakable.

For Greece’s PM Tsipras, if voters back a bailout plan that he has scorned, his government will likley fall, leading to new elections by September.

His coalition is crumbling as a succession of deputies from the right-wing Independent Greeks, his junior partners, are backed a ‘Yes’ vote.

Mr. Tsipras and his FM, Yanis Varoufakis, are convinced Athens can negotiate better terms, including debt relief, if voters reject the conditions on offer. But both have signaled they will quit if voters choose the bailout.

The only full survey to be released since the referendum was announced showed the “No” vote ahead, but falling sharply after the announcement that banks would be shut.

Another poll, compiled for the French bank BNP Paribas and published on the Greek news site euro2day, showed “Yes” in the lead by 47 to 43%, although the head of the pollster GPO, which conducted the survey, told Greek television it was just a partial snapshot from 1 day, and opinion was very volatile.

Elsewhere in Europe, 67% of French people want Europe to stop lending money to Greece, a survey by Harris Interactive indicated, and 57% believe Greece will not pay back any of its debts the EU and IMF.

Stay tuned for more analysis as the country heads towards a referendum Sunday.

Have a terrific weekend.

HeffX-LTN

Paul Ebeling

 

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