Greek political uncertainty is expected to persist and act as an additional risk factor for the EUR. The cash troubles for Greece are likely to remain in the coming weeks despite last week’s IMF payment and issuance of €1.14bn of t-bills. Greece is expected to be hard-pressed to meet all end-of-the-month public-sector payments. Similarly, banking sector liquidity conditions have worsened, as the increased ELA usage demonstrates, and it is unlikely that bank deposit outflows will abate as long as the outcome of the negotiations with the creditor ‘institutions’ are uncertain. “Although not our baseline, we see elevated risks of failed negotiations with the Eurogroup. The next key dates ahead are 15 April (issuance of a T-bill to roll the one maturing on 17 April worth €1.0bn) and 24 April (Eurogroup meeting in Riga)”, Says Barclays
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