Greek referendum: Exit polls suggest ‘No’ winning – TDS

FXStreet (Bali) – Greek polling has just closed and the initial exit polls suggest Greek voters have rejected the creditors bailout proposal, notes Richard Kelly, Head of Global Strategy at TD Securities.

Key Quotes

Though still likely within the margin of error, four polls all put No ahead:

· GPO: Yes/No at 48.5%/51.5%

· Metron: Yes/No at 48%/52%.

· Skai: Yes/No at 48.5%/51.5%

· Macro No: Yes/No at 48%/52%

“Greek exit polls for previous elections have been fairly reliable, which suggests at best, tonight’s tally may be extremely close; however unlike those exit polls, these were not conducted at the polling stations themselves and the margin of error is not immediately available. Estimates have been looking for about 50% of the ballots to be counted by around 8-9pm BST, and 90% by midnight BST. If the No votes are clearly trending around 52-53%, we may know by around the open of Asian markets whether the first official counts are moving in favour of supporting these exit polls.”

“This clearly takes us into the most uncertain and risky outcome. Syriza’s Parliamentary spokesperson has already issued a statement that these results would allow the government to move forward quickly and seal a deal with creditors.”

“This is obviously in direct contrast to the message that has been given almost unanimously from creditors and sets up very poorly for the start of trading this week if the official results confirm this.”

“While we would expect creditors to return to the negotiating table in some form this week, we doubt the overall framework off the program will differ much from what they would have looked for otherwise – ongoing reforms of taxes and pensions and demands for a broad government consensus and unity government.”

“A German government spokesperson has already announced that Merkel will be meeting with Hollande in Paris on Monday afternoon to discuss the results, which will garner considerable attention.”

“We think the ECB is unlikely to turn off the ELA as long as negotiations are ongoing in some form, but the economic situation continues to deteriorate and it seems doubtful that banks will be able to open at all this week. The crux of the current problem is that the Greek economy and financial system has scant time for negotiations.”

Greek polling has just closed and the initial exit polls suggest Greek voters have rejected the creditors bailout proposal, notes Richard Kelly, Head of Global Strategy at TD Securities.

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