Australian Dollar
Expected Range 0.7320 – 0.7580
The Australian dollar edged marginally higher through trade on Thursday creeping back toward the 0.75 handle as profit taking on recent gains forced the Greenback lower. Having found support on moves toward 0.7450 the AUD touched intraday highs at 0.7513. With little macroeconomic data on hand to drive direction AUD gains were hamstrung by expectations of a possible and upcoming RBA rate cut. Attentions now turn to Tuesdays all important quarterly inflation report. A poor read will all but cement a policy change in the eyes of investors and possibly stimulate moves beyond recent technical barriers with 7 weeks lows at and around 0.74 and 0.7320 likely to be tested.
New Zealand Dollar
Expected Range 0.6920 – 0.7120
The New Zealand dollar suffered a 7th straight daily depreciation and was one of the days big movers Thursday as markets reacted to the RBNZ’s unusual between meeting policy update. The Reserve Bank Board highlighted a need for looser monetary policy in combatting the overly inflated NZD and the Kiwi broke through 0.70 touching intraday lows at 0.6949. The economic update points to a cut of the overnight Cash Rate when the RBNZ next meets on August 11th and dampened demand for the NZD as a higher yielding carry trade option. Having given up some 3.5 cents since July 13 direction moving into the weekend will be driven by monetary policy expectations.
Great British Pound
Expected Range 1.7475 – 1.7775
The Great British Pound offered little to excite investors through trade on Thursday maintaining a relatively restrained trading band. Having enjoyed bouts of volatility in early and mid-week trade investors seemed content in managing positions and absorbing commentary from Europe ahead of next weeks all important Federal Reserve policy meeting. Bouncing to touch intraday highs at 1.3275 Sterling opens this morning marginally lower at 1.3221 as attentions turn to manufacturing and services data for direction into the weekend.
Majors
Expected Range N/A
The US. Dollar’s advance stalled through trade on Thursday as the Greenback tumbled against the Japanese Yen while struggling to broker further gains against the EURO. The USD fought to consolidate moves below 1.10 however investors appeared reluctant to push the world’s base currency beyond this important psychological handle. The 19 nation combined unit found support following the ECB’s monthly monetary policy meeting, wherein, the Central Bank elected to maintain its current monetary policy platform while stressing the importance of a slow and measured approach to future policy changes. Having bounced about a 60 point trading band EUR/USD opens this morning at 1.1025. The Greenback tumbled against the Yen losing 200 points and touched intraday lows at 105.50. Comments from BoJ Chief Haruhiko Kuroda dampened expectations of an aggressive increase to current stimulus measure later this month and prompted a hurried bout of USD profit taking. When it emerged the Kuroda comments were actually a pre-recorded BBC interview from mid-June the USD found support although investors appeared content in repositioning JPY expectations. Opening this morning at 105.82 attentions turn to a relatively quiet macroeconomic docket dominated by mid-level manufacturing and services data for direction into the weekend.