Time to crunch the numbers
The top forecasters according to Bloomberg’s metric have thrown their dice for today.
NFP top pickers
Here are the expectations.
Unless we get a massive miss or beat of the payrolls number the wages will get all the attention today and their meaning for Fed hikes. Even if payrolls post a big miss, that might still be tempered by a decent jump in wages. Given how long payrolls have been posting positive numbers, we’re going to have a bad one one day. If we get a fantastic number and good wages then the dollar will take off. That said, recently we’ve not seen massive moves in the dollar on this data. Last month was great for wages but we took an awfully long time to start really moving on it, so watch for that second wind effect.