Barclays on tonight’s US debate and the dollar
Despite not hiking interest rates in its September meeting, the FOMC signalled its intentions to increase at least once before year-end. Therefore, market expectations for a December hike barely changed and remain above 50%. We do think that markets will continue to price a higher probability as we approach year-end due to the fact that the status quo in terms of inflation and labour market dynamics should be sufficient to support an increase in fed funds rate before year-end.
