As luxury housing markets in New York City, Vancouver and San Francisco show signs of wobbling after nearly nine years of torrid price growth that has already more than compensated for the Bush-era housing collapse, a report by Trulia Analytics offered the latest insight into where some of the most painful retrenchment might occur for home owners and mortgage holders who risk seeing a large chunk of their net worth wiped out (the losses could be particularly painful if Nassim Taleb is right about the next debt crisis beginning in the housing market).
In the report, Trulia examined which cities among the largest 100 US metro areas saw the largest increases in the number of million dollar homes, as well as the number of neighborhoods where the median home value is one million dollars.
Unsurprisingly, the markets that saw the largest increases in the number of million-dollar homes were almost exclusively on the West Coast, with Long Island, NY the only east-coast market to crack the top ten. No markets in the midwest or south made the cut.
But digging deeper into the data, this is possibly the most glaring stat to suggest that last year might have seen a pre-bust run-up equivalent to the rate of home appreciation in 2005 and 2006. Of the 838 million-dollar-neighborhoods currently in the US, more than 105 crossed the threshold in the past year alone. Seven of these were located in San Francisco, joining the 80 neighborhoods in the city that had already shared this designation. These new additions include South of Market, Portola, Ingleside and ever-popular Fisherman’s Wharf neighborhoods. Across SF, only 15 neighborhoods remain with a median home value below $1 million.
While San Francisco has the largest number of million dollar homes and neighborhoods, other California cities are quickly catching up.
Across the US, among the cities and towns that featured at least 10 large neighborhoods (according to Trulia’s methodology), more than eight that saw the largest jump in neighborhoods joining the $1 million club were in coastal California. And the cities with the largest numbers of million dollar homes and neighborhoods were San Francisco, San Jose and Oakland, all located within the Bay Area.
But as debt-burdened, home-ownership averse millennials continue to favor urban hubs over the traditional “home in the suburbs”, home valuations in trendy neighborhoods are climbing in many smaller cities. Among the 100 largest cities, three got their first million-dollar neighborhood in the past of year. In Austin, the median home value in Barton Creek increased to $1.02 million in October, up from $935,000 a year ago.
In other words, while the price tag might look outrageous, this vacant lot in SF is actually a great deal at a cool $15 million.
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