The unusually late timing of Chinese New Year, which disrupted investment and factory output, is probably partly to blame for the weakness in March activity data. Given that this drag should have faded in April, analysts at Capital Economics are expecting growth in both production and investment data (both Wednesday) to have rebounded. New bank loans (due before the end of the week) may have dropped back in April after March’s rise, reflecting the usual seasonal pattern. Nonetheless, y/y growth in outstanding loans should have strengthened slightly – although the RRR cut came late in the month, it should still have provided a mild boost. Meanwhile, Capital Economics says – expecting inflation data (Saturday 9th) to have shown a rebound in April. Elsewhere, expect growth in Hong Kong (Friday), which remained relatively weak at the end of last year, to have picked up slightly in Q1.
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