While we are confident that the real reason for today’s gap higher is because Citadel (with or without the instructions of the NY Fed) decided to take out all intraday stops, on the back of correlation algos buying the oil oil surge, facilitated perhaps by some gentle nudge in the USDJPY to overnight highs – a pattern observed virtually every day – we more amusing explanation would be that algos once again read Gartman’s latest note.
This is what he said.
For the US market, the support that suddenly appeared last week and the week before and also in early April at 2025-2030 must hold. If it does not, there is nothing… absolutely nothing!… below there in the way of technical support levels to stem the profit taking and “sell stop electing” trading that shall follow. In the long run, we much prefer bull markets for in bull markets the confetti falls; the music is lively; the women are lovely; the champagne is bubbly and cold… Iife is “gay and bright.”
Bear markets, on the other hand, are damp, cold, with the wind blowing and collars must needs be turned up. As a friend of ours from decades ago once presciently said, “Bears don’t eat.” Truly we hope that the support levels hold; realistically we fear that they shall not and thus not only must attention be paid to those levels of support, but action to protect one’s net worth must be taken, for as our old friend, Doug Kass, always reminds us, “Risk happens fast.”
In our retirement account here at TGL we have simplified our position taking in the equity market: we have only a position in derivatives on the short side, and although it is not a material position it is one-sided. We’ve cast our long positions aside. We’ve simplified; we’ve gotten smaller; but we are bearishly inclined, and we are intent upon adding to those bearishly inclined positions the very moment in the futures markets that 17,400 is given in the Dow futures; the moment that 2025 is “given” in the S&P futures; the moment that 4290 is “given” in the NASDAQ futures and the moment that 1085 is “given” in the Russell. These will all happen almost simultaneously. Our antennae are up; so too should everyone’s be.
The immediate result:
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