JPY to remain bearish despite rally fuelled by risk-aversion – BNPP

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BNP Paribas, notes that the BoJ’s quarterly Tankan survey showed capital expenditure plans largely unchanged from Q3, while the outlook for large manufacturing and non-manufacturing was weaker than expected pointing to a lukewarm economy.

Key Quotes

“One factor likely weighing on the outlook is sluggish demand from emerging economies and commodity exporters, factors that have been supportive for the JPY via a weaker risk sentiment. Following last week’s risk-off move, long JPY is now the largest long position in G10 FX, according to BNP Paribas Positioning Analysis.”

“We were stopped out of our long USDJPY recommendation on Friday for a 1.39% loss but it remains one of our key views for 2016. We think the driver of USDJPY upside will be rising US rates as the Fed tightens at a faster pace than the market currently discounts. Widening rate differentials should, in turn, continue to motivate Japanese investors to look for higher returns abroad.”

Research Team at BNP Paribas, notes that the BoJ’s quarterly Tankan survey showed capital expenditure plans largely unchanged from Q3, while the outlook for large manufacturing and non-manufacturing was weaker than expected pointing to a lukewarm economy.

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