July 15th 2016: BoE Shocks By Doing Nothing

• As leaders assess the human impact of the devastating Nice terror attacks last night, markets appear to have compartmentalised the incident. The euro itself is rallying and there does not appear to be a wider risk-off move as a result of the attack. Francois Hollande was about to downgrade France’s alert status, sadly this will have to wait a while longer.

• The US dollar is down slightly, while the USD/ JPY continues to climb.

• The biggest moves yesterday came from the pound which rose after the Bank of England’s MPC opted to keep rates on hold in the face of many who predicted a small cut. The move was not as spectacular as it might have been however as most expect the move to simply roll on to August where we might expect something significant.

• Elsewhere, the Australian dollar is on the up after better than expected Chinese Industrial Production.

• Coming up today we have BOE governor Carney speaking at 13.00.
• At 13.30, this is followed by US CPI, Empire State manufacturing and retail sales. Canadian Manufacturing sales are released at the same time.
• At 14.15, we get capacity utilisation and industrial production.
• Finally at 15.00, we have US preliminary UoM consumer sentiment.

Trade Idea: 

• The Australian dollar continues to attract buyers as China concerns take a back sear. The general flow is against the yen right now so we could see further AUD/ JPY upside from here.

• A good way to play this is a HIGHER trade predicting that the AUD/ JPY will close above 82.00 in 10 days for a potential return of 182%

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