July 21st 2016: Pound Rallies On Positive Brexit Surprise

• This morning, the British pound is slipping back after UK figures went upside, with better than expected average earnings, claimant count change and the unemployment rate. These surveys and data points were taken before the Brexit vote, but it is encouraging that the pre-referendum uncertainty had not spread into the real economy.

• Markets are generally mixed this morning as the US dollar drops off from the highs, and the USD/JPY slips back slightly.

• The big mover this morning is the New Zealand dollar which is recovering well after heavy selling yesterday.

• The Australian dollar is moving to a similar beat.

• Meanwhile, the EUR/USD is nudging higher ahead of today’s ECB meeting.

• Coming up today, we have UK retail sales and public sector net borrowing at 09.30.
• This is followed by the ECB rate statement at 12.45 and press conference at 13.30.
• At the same time, we get Canadian wholesale sales, US Philly Fed and US unemployment claims.
• US existing home sales follow at 15.00.

Trade Idea: 

• The pound is performing remarkably well at the moment, so far confounding initial Brexit fears. The euro zone continues to struggle however and the EUR/GBP could well see more downside, at least until the next Bank of England meeting.

• A good way to play this is a LOWER trade predicting that the EUR/GBP will close below 0.8300 in 14 days for a potential return of 110%.

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