Key economic releases for the coming week include the ISM non-manufacturing report on Wednesday. There are several scheduled speeches from Fed officials this week. Fed Chair Yellen will take part in a discussion with former Fed Chairs on Thursday.
Monday, April 4
10:00 AM Factory orders, February (GS -2.1%, consensus -1.8%, last +1.6%)
- Factory orders likely declined in February following a 1.6% gain in January. Falling factory orders would reflect the weaker-than-expected durable goods report for February.
09:30 AM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC voter) speaks
- Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren will speak about economic and cybersecurity risks at the Boston Fed’s cybersecurity conference. In February, Rosengren noted that “if inflation is slower to return to target, monetary policy normalization should be unhurried. A more gradual approach is an appropriate response to headwinds from abroad that slow exports, and financial volatility that raises the cost of funds to many firms.”
07:00 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks
- Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will hold a town hall meeting on ‘too big to fail’. There will be Q&A beforehand at 5:15 PM. The newly appointed President Kashkari has said little in public regarding his views on monetary policy.
Tuesday, April 5
01:00 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks
- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans speaks on the economy and monetary policy at the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong. Audience and media Q&A is expected. Last week, President Evans discussed the “asymmetric” risks facing the US economy, noting that “we should buy some insurance against unexpected weakness by accepting a somewhat higher likelihood of stronger outcomes. Translated into monetary policy, this means being more accommodative than usual to provide an extra boost to aggregate demand as a buffer against possible future downside shocks that might otherwise drive us back to the effective lower bound.”
08:30 AM Trade balance, February (GS -$46.0bn, consensus -$46.2bn, last -$45.7bn)
- The new advanced goods trade report showed a slightly wider goods deficit in February (-$62.9bn from -$62.4bn), reflecting a widening trade balance across foods & beverages, capital goods, and consumer goods. We expect the services balance to be little changed in February. Overall, we expect the total trade deficit to be -$46.0bn.
10:00 AM ISM non-manufacturing, March (GS 54.6, consensus 54.1, last 53.4)
- Service sector surveys improved in March. The Philly Fed (+10.3pt to +13.9), Richmond Fed (+11pt to +9), and New York Fed (+23.7pt to +12.6) indices all rose (the New York survey is a relatively new and not seasonally adjusted series). The Markit Services PMI also rose (+1.3pt to 51.0), escaping contractionary levels. The ISM non-manufacturing index fell by 0.1pt last month.
Wednesday, April 6
12:20 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks
- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester speaks on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy at an event hosted by the Cleveland Association for Business Economics, CFA Society Cleveland, and Risk Management Association of Northern Ohio. Last week, President Mester stated, “Given actual and expected economic performance, the risks around the outlook, and the progress toward our policy goals, my assessment at this time is that it will be appropriate to continue to gradually reduce the degree of accommodation this year. Gradual normalization means that monetary policy will remain accommodative for some time to come, providing support to the economy and insurance against downside risks.”
02:00 PM Minutes from the March 15-16 FOMC meeting
- Fed officials indicated a more cautious approach to the near-term policy outlook at the March FOMC meeting, a message that was reinforced during last week’s speech by Chair Yellen. In the minutes, we will be watching for (1) any additional signs that the committee is embracing a “risk management” approach for monetary policy, (2) further details around the committee’s view on growth headwinds stemming from abroad, (3) the committee’s assessment of the balance of risks to the economic outlook, and (4) any views regarding the recent acceleration in core inflation.
08:00 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks
- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Kaplan speaks on a moderated panel at the World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth. Last month, President Kaplan said that “the Fed needs to show patience in decisions to remove accommodation”.
Thursday, April 7
08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 2 (consensus 270k, last 276k)
Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 26 (consensus 2,170k, last 2,173k)
- Consensus expects initial jobless claims to edge down to 270k. Initial claims moved up last week, although we suspect some of the rise may be due to seasonal effects stemming from the Good Friday holiday.
05:30 PM Fed Chair Yellen speaks
- Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will take part in a discussion with former Fed Chairs Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan, and Paul Volcker at an event hosted by International House. Last week, Chair Yellen acknowledged that core inflation had risen “somewhat more than my expectation in December,” but said “it is too early to tell if this recent faster pace will prove durable”.
08:00 PM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC voter) speaks
- Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George will speak about the U.S. economy. Q&A is expected. At the March FOMC, President George dissented, citing her preference to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.
Friday, April 8
10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, February (consensus -0.2%, last +0.2%)
- Consensus expects wholesale inventories to decrease slightly in January.
Source: GS
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