Australian Dollar:
Minimal volatility is expected today with the local currency as nationwide bank holidays take place in Australia, and with our largest trade partner China. The Aussie closed higher last week as positive building approvals and retail sales figures bolstered the AUD to new levels, as it sat comfortably above the 70 US cent level for most the week. With little to nothing happening the market today traders will be anxiously awaiting tomorrows rate decision from the RBA, however with the governor stating previously that he was “pretty content” with current policy, rates are expected to remain at its present record low of 2.0%.
We expect a range today of AUD/USD 0.7000 – 0.7080
New Zealand Dollar:
With very little economic data being released last week the Kiwi has still managed to open higher this morning after overseas stimuli saw the NZD trend upwards throughout the entirety of the week. The Kiwi opens today buying 64.36 US cents, and as a clear economic docket is on the cards today investor attention will be on tomorrow’s business confidence and GDT price index. With the previous three reports showing a considerable increase in prices, reduced feed supplement usage and falling production is expected to boost prices again.
Great British Pound:
Weak employment and wage figures out of the US on Friday evening resulted in the Cable opening much higher this morning than expected. Upbeat UK construction figures for September showing an improvement in purchasing managers sentiment also contributed to the Pound sterling rally that closed off the week on Friday. Scheduled today in local announcements Services PMI will be at the forefront of speculators minds, as the GBP opens at 1.5172 against its US counterpart, and at 1.1512 and 2.3530 against its Australian and New Zealand counterparts respectively.
We expect a range today of GBP/AUD 2.1470 – 2.1550
Majors:
The Greenback has taken a hit across the board today as soft data surrounding employment was released on Friday evening. Unemployment came in on target at 5.1%, however Non-Farm employment change was reported at 142k, which is much less than the projection of 201k. More importantly average hourly earnings for the previous month showed no increase at all when a rise of 0.2% was forecasted, which brings the possibility of a rate hike this year into question. In Eurozone happenings, focus this week will be on the ECB meeting and their discussions around further potential easing measures to help stimulate the economy.
Data releases:
AUD: Bank Holiday, AIG Services Index, MI Inflation Gauge m/m, ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
CNY: Bank Holiday
EUR: Spanish Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, Final Services PMI, Sentix Investor Confidence, Retail Sales m/m, Eurogroup Meetings
GBP: Services PMI
JPY: Average Cash Earnings y/y
USD: Final Services PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Labour Market Conditions Index m/m