FXStreet (Barcelona) – Global Head of Economics at Societe Generale, Michala Marcussen, expects a below consensus US June NFP print at 210K, but expects the payrolls data to underpin a September Fed rate hike.
Key Quotes
“It is rare that US payrolls receive such a low billing; especially given that the T-Note yield closed last week at 2.47% (very close to the year high of on 10 June and a level previously last seen in September 2014). Markets now sets a 33% probability that the FOMC will announce its first rate hike in nine years in September and 69% by December 2015.”
“Our forecast of 210K for June non-farm payrolls is slightly below consensus, but we expect the new quarter of data flow to underpin our view for a September rate hike. To our minds, the hurdle not to hike in 2015 is high. Nonetheless should efforts by euro area policymakers to stem the spillover from Greece fail and the broader financial markets suffer a more substantial and long lasting correction, the Fed would then take this into account and likely delay any decision to hike rates.”
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