European stock indices show a moderate increase, fueled by the growth of oil prices, as well as the expectations of the European Central Bank meeting.
According to a poll of 70 economists, conducted by Reuters, the ECB will leave its monetary policy unchanged in September, but by the end of the year a QE extension is likely. In addition, many analysts expect the Central Bank will hold its refinancing rate and the deposit rate – at 0.0 percent and -0.4 percent respectively by the end of 2017. The majority of economists said that the central bank will extend its monthly bond purchase program, which will end in March 2017. Few economists have noted that the ECB will soften the policy again by the end of the year, either by reducing the rate and / or expansion of QE program.
Some influence on the course of trading also provided data for Germany and the UK. The Statistical Office of Germany reported that industrial output fell sharply at the end of July, registering the largest drop in 23 months, which is another sign of slowing from Europe’s largest economy. The report stated that the volume of industrial production decreased by 1.5 percent compared to June. Economists had expected an increase of 0.2 percent. Increased production in the construction sector (+1.8 per cent) and energy production (2.6 percent) was offset by a decline in the manufacturing industry (-2.3 percent).
The report published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that industrial production in the UK rose in July by 0.1 percent after flat in June. Experts predicted that the production will be reduced by 0.2 percent. Production decreased by 0.9 per cent, exceeding the estimate (-0.4 per cent) in the manufacturing sector, and speeding up the pace compared to June (-0.2 percent). Meanwhile, production in the mining and quarrying sector increased by 4.7 percent. In addition, the ONS reported that annual industrial production growth accelerated to 2.1 percent compared to 1.4 percent in June. This was the fastest growth in three months. It was expected that the figure will increase by 1.9 percent. Manufacturing output increased by 0.8 per cent y/y, after rising 0.6 percent in June (revised from +0.9 per cent). Analysts had forecast an increase in production by 1.7 per cent.
The composite index of the largest companies in the region Stoxx Europe 600 is trading almost unchanged. “Today the markets breath and look forward to tomorrow’s ECB meeting. I do not expect that European stocks to rise markedly, unless the ECB does announce some additional measures.”, – Said Michael Milcom, a senior analyst at Danske Bank A / S.
Shares of Royal Dutch Shell Plc, BP Plc and Total SA closed in positive territory for the third time in the last four days.
Banks shares lower the third day in a row, which is the longest series since mid-August. Quotes of UniCredit SpA fell 2.6 percent after the Italian Prime Minister Renzi said that the creditor may have to raise new capital.
CMC Markets Plc fell by 12 percent after the British broker reported a decline in net operating income.
The capitalization of Deutsche Lufthansa AG and Air France-KLM Group fell more than 2.5 percent as Deutsche Bank AG analysts downgraded shares of airlines to “sell.”
Ashtead Group Plc Shares rose 6.7 percent after the British company said that the financial performance are likely to be better.
Quotes of Weir Group Plc rose 3.4 percent as Morgan Stanley analysts raised their rating to “buy”.
At the moment:
FTSE 100 +6.04 6832.09 + 0.09%
DAX +31.61 10718.75 + 0.30%
CAC 40 +10.36 4540.32 + 0.23%
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