Market Participants Worried, Hedging Bets
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ
Market participants are so worried about Greece and Fed actions that a record number of them are bracing for a sharp drop in stocks.
Fund managers globally have boosted their cash levels, reduced stock holdings and hedged their portfolios against a market decline.
The Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE:BAC) survey said the portion of participants taking out “protection” against a sharp fall in equity markets in the next 3 months reached a net 26%, the highest level in survey data going back 7 years. Cash levels have reached an average 4.9% of holdings, the highest since January, according to the data.
Stock and bond markets, particularly in Europe, have had major swings this year, rising with the advent of the European Central Bank’s QE program and dropping as debt-payment negotiations between Greece and its creditors faltered. Germany’s DAX index this year rose 30% to a record high in April before pulling back 13%.
Just 15% of fund managers expect Grexit, while 43% seeing a good resolution, and 42% anticipate a Greece default without Grexit.
The most crowded trade is a long position in the Buck compared with other currencies, fund managers said. Buck Bullishness is driven by the expectation of the 1st Fed rate hike in 11 yrs, which will draw investor cash into US Treasuries providing a higher yield, the US Dollar is a Treasury security.
The timing of the rate hikes will add to market volatility, according to participants interviewed by the WS-J.
With ‘Dry Powder” aka cash, it is pretty much in your hands so you can make a purchase quickly and react almost instantly to market conditions.
BOA surveyed fund managers from 5 to 11 June with 167 panelists overseeing $437-B responding.
Stay tuned…
HeffX-LTN
Paul Ebeling
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