Morgan Stanley on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, AUD, NZD for the coming week
USD: Fed Dovish Enough To Weaken USD. Neutral.
The Fed was dovish enough to support our weak USD view. The focus now
shifts to the upcoming data which we expect will once again be worse
than the Fed is hoping for and will prevent the Fed from hiking in
December. Even if the Fed does hike, we expect it to be a compromise
between the hawks and doves which is accompanied by dovish guidance
about future hikes. We like selling USD against EM and G10 commodity
currencies which are more likely to benefit from a dovish Fed and low G4
yields. A risk-off environment is another key risk to our view but we
don’t see any imminent catalysts to derail the risk rally.