Nuclear Deal Will Allow Young Iranians Connect With The World
To Iran’s leaders, solving a nuclear standoff with the West is a question of maintaining geopolitical influence and prestige. To its citizens, it is about money, food and jobs, and connecting with the World.
Years of tightening international sanctions, that worked to counter Iranian evasion and secrecy and guarantee that Iran’s nuclear program can have no military dimension, have closed hundreds of factories and cut living standards by at least 50%.
The desire of Iranians runs deep for negotiators to make the deal in Vienna by their new self-imposed deadline of 7 July.
Over the last 30 yrs, Iranians have become used to US trade restrictions that meant some kinds of goods, from US consumer electronics to aircraft parts, were not available.
But since 2011-12, when the United States and the European Union began restricting Iran’s ability to sell Crude Oil or conduct financial transactions abroad, has become very painful for many of its 80 million people.
Sharp cuts in subsidies brought about by the reduction in state revenues mean that the cost of electricity, water and natural gas has tripled since 2010, for businesses and individuals.
The International Monetary Fund estimates that per capita GDP (gross domestic product) plunged to $6,500 in 2013 from $12,000 in 2012, on a purchasing-power basis.
Yes, there are many for whom Iran’s nuclear program is a matter of national pride, who say the sanctions only go to prove the West’s hostility and determination to subjugate their country.
But the arrival of Hassan Rouhani, the pragmatic president elected in 2013 on a promise to end Iran’s isolation and revive the economy, has brought some relief, not just because an interim nuclear agreement in November 2013 led to a easing of some sanctions.
He has received support from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been prepared to compromise on the nuclear issue and make a deal in the light of growing economic problems, despite his deep distrust of the United States.
Since President Rouhani’s election, the official inflation rate has been pared by 50%, but it is still 18%. Official unemployment remains around 15%, a figure that does not reflect the huge number of jobs that pay less than a living wage, and the gap between rich and poor is widening.
Iran was never barred from buying food and other basic necessities under sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union. Much of its food and animal feed are imported, and many of its factories assemble goods from imported parts.
But the measures have made trade more difficult for the past two years by hindering overseas payments and the procurement of maritime insurance. Several Iranian ports remain blacklisted, which has also slowed down or even blocked many imports.
Yet behind all the complaints, there is a growing sense of anticipation in the business community, that the long wait for things to improve could soon end.
Currency traders are even refusing to trade foreign currency, especially US dollars, as they await a deal.
But it may be the young who invest the most hope for a successful deal in Vienna. “We do not want this deal to fail,” said university student. “I am a young person who wants to be connected to the rest of the world.”
By Reza Hashami, CEO, Global Modern Insurance, Inc.
Paul Ebeling, Editor
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