FXStreet (Edinburgh) – Analysts at BAML expect the Polish currency to pick up pace in the next months.
Key Quotes
“Growth is largely stable and on track to our forecast of 3.5% this year. 2Q GDP in nonseasonally adjusted terms was below expectations at 3.3% yoy, from 3.6% in 1Q”.
“However, when adjusted for seasonality, growth accelerated slightly to 3.6% yoy in 2Q from 3.4%. Business and consumer survey data in the recent months suggest a continuation of this growth trend”.
“Consumers should still benefit from a weak inflation environment, though private consumption growth may slow from the high rate of 3.9% in 1Q, as prices have edged up since 2Q and consumer confidence has likely peaked”.
“We would also look upon any material underperformance around October elections as an opportunity to buy PLN from a longer-term perspective”.
“From a cross-EM perspective, the likely greater volatility in low-inflation Asian FX markets after the CNY devaluation is also a potential positive for CEE currencies like PLN, HUF and CZK, which may be able to gain support as alternative safe havens in EM”.
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