Following April's gas-price-surge-driven spike in retail sales (by the most in 13 months), May and June have seen various sections of the retailing world collapse, as we detailed here, and growth slowed acordingly with a 0.5% rise MoM (though beating expectations of a 0.3% rise). Before everyone breaks out the champagne for the new recovery, however, we note that the biggest contributor to May's gains was a 2.1% jump in gasoline station spending – which is "unequivocally bad" right?
YoY growth in retail sales slowed to just 2.5% as building materials and garden supplies centers (home-buying proxy) declined notably by 1.8% in the month.
Alas, escape velocity not achieved:
The breakdown shows spending at gasoline stations surge but home-buying-proxy "building materials" declined sharply:
In fact, looking at just building materials – an advance proxy for housing demand – it appears any latent demand for new home-building/buying has flipped.
Of course, this is government-adjusted data. The market has a different take…
Finally, we note that non-store retailers (online retailers such as Amazon) now account for more than 10% of US retail sales in April and May.
Charts: Bloomberg
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