Seriously…
Let's get this Deutsche Bank debacle out of the way first. A rumor – started by Jim Cramer, expanded by a number of twitterati, picked up by Bloomberg, then reported by AFP somehow managed to create a short squeeze rip higher in Deutsche ADRs…
Some context for the 'recovery'
But the yield curve wasn't supportive…
And CDS wasn't buying it…
And that was enough to spark a buying panic is US equities…
So, let's get back to the rest of the markets (and wait for the DOJ denial)
* * *
For Q3 Overall, Silver & Stocks lead Q3 performance as oil lags (but overall it was a subdued quarter)…
Nasdaq was the quarter's big winner, The Dow and S&P lagged…
Even as rate-hike odds soared…
Treasury yields were all up on the quarter, but we note a 14bps bear flattening in the curve…
The USD Index ended Q3 down very modestly (-0.4%) with Yen strength offset by cable weakness…
Oil actually legged on the quarter with silver best…
* * *
For September, crude led but PMs outperformed stocks and bonds lagged…
Notably The Dow was red on the month and the S&P scrambled to try and breakeven but failed as Trannies soared in September…
Energy stocks outperformed in September as homebuilders and financials lagged…
Intersstingly, while the curve flattened markedly on the quarter, it steepened dramatically in September…
The USD Index drifted notably on the month, once again as cable weakness was trumped by Yen strength…
Copper and Crude outperformed in September, gold lagged…
* * *
Finally, on the week, today's bounce pulled most stocks into the green but Small Caps lagged (even though they outperformed today)…UGLY CLOSE
Futures show just how crazy this week was…
Banks managed to scramble back to unchanged on the week…
Nothing was stopping stocks today not even a giant 8k block… which as @RockHowse explains was absorbed like a champ…
On the week, Treasuries were mixed with 2Y 1bps higher and 30Y 3bps lower…
The flatness of 2Y yields is reflected in the perfectly unchanged close of the USD index on the week… (mostly driven by DB's recovery and exodus from USD safe haven)
WTI Crude had a massive week – best in 2 months – gold and silver pumped and dumped today and copper ended the week green…
Jones Trading sums up the week…
US Equities are poised to close a touch higher on the week while Asia and Europe were generally lower. It was a decent week in terms of catalysts – we had OPEC’s “consultation” that yielded a production cap starting in November, a Presidential debate that yielded several memes and sound-bites, Deutsche Bank made headlines as impending fines by the US DoJ created questions around liquidity and capital. In the end – it all amounts to the S&P500 closing higher by 20bps – and flat for the month of September. It wasn’t really a macro-narrative shifting week – economic data continued to fall in-line and Central Bank speak didn’t do much to wow investors either. As we highlighted in the past, most market participants appear to be poised for a pull-back, yet this tape continues to move higher. It won’t be the first or last time that we prescribe to the idea that this market will continue on the path of most pain. In terms of technical – this market did struggle to break and hold above the 50-day MA this week. As we are writing this on Friday afternoon, the S&P500 is a couple of points above the 50-day MA – which is 2168. A few weeks ago we noted that we could likely find ourselves right back between 2150 and 2200 in short-order; this range will likely continue to hold.
Translated – no matter WTF happens, stocks inch higher or are rescued… because "wealth creation" and "election"
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: Do you believe in 2016 GDP growth miracles?
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