FXStreet (Edinburgh) – The research team at BBH has assessed the recent figures from the US labour market.
Key Quotes
“The US employment data was largely in line with market expectations, which were for continued improvement in the labor market. There still is one employment report before the FOMC meeting in September, but the risks of a lift-off then appears to have increased”.
“The 215k rise in nonfarm payrolls is in line with the six month average (213k). The May series was revised up by 6k and the June report by 8k. Manufacturing added 15k jobs, three times more than the consensus. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.3%, just above the Fed’s estimated range for full employment”.
“Two other details are notable. First, the average weekly hours rose to 34.6 hours from 34.5. It does not seem like much, but given the number of workers, an extra six minutes a week turns into a lot of full time equivalents. This speaks to output more than employment”… Second, the underemployment rate slipped to 10.4% from 10.5%. This is a new cyclical low”.
“On balance, we suspect that the jobs data meets the Fed’s criteria of more improvement before raising rates. Ideally, this will be confirmed in the Labor Market Conditions Index and the JOLTS report out next week”.
(Market News Provided by FXstreet)