So far 2015 is proving to be very happening year. Investors should gauge moves carefully as this year is expected to be more volatile than previous ones.
What to watch out for –
US economy –
- With more than $ 16 trillion in GDP, without growth in US, crisis will be far from over. After last year stellar performance, economy is somewhat in back foot.
- How the US economy performs amid rate hike by FED and stronger dollar, will be the key driving force in global growth.
- Economists and policy makers will be forced to black board calculation once again should growth falter.
Greece –
- It is still not clear, what the path ahead will be for Athens. To stay or choose exit from Euro.
- Grexit would be very volatile for the world economic and political balance.
Recovery in Europe –
- Recent data pointing to recovery in Euro zone, world second largest economic region.
- However it far from clear, whether the growth is sustainable and what ECB might be doing if growth and inflation picks up earlier than expected.
- Weaker Euro has been proved bad for everyone except Europe.
Commodity prices –
- Commodities are facing further headwinds this year, both industrial and agricultural. Weaker prices will keep downside pressure on global inflation and their producers.
- Oil so far been consolidating in 2015, however farther fall would create renewed panic among oil producing nations.
BOJ policy –
- BOJ policies so far failed to stroke sustainable inflation and growth in Japan. Consumers are reported to be negatively reacting to higher prices after years of deflation.
- BOJ further easing risks liquidity crisis in BOJ market. BOJ’s response to economic slowdown will be key to watch out for in 2015.
Russia –
- Russia’s response to global geo politics contains high potency to add volatilities in the market. Moreover its move will influence future of oil politics and market share of the commodities.
Emerging markets and China –
- Chinese stock market is turning as the best performer this year, though warnings are on the rise over high margin debt fueling moves.
- China also takes on IMF and World Bank by setting up Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), that set off rush by countries across world to join the initiative.
- Some emerging markets like Indonesia, Brazil, and Mexico trying to defend their currencies whereas countries like China, India, Korea and Thailand are easing policy to keep the currencies from strengthening and to fight disinflation.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com