Shayne Heffernan: Gold Price Report
Gold closed above the lower band by 1.5%.
Bollinger Bands are 65.03% wider than normal. The large width of the bands suggest high volatility as compared to PREC.M.XAU=’s normal range. Therefore, the probability of volatility decreasing and prices entering (or remaining in) a trading range has increased for the near-term. The bands have been in this wide range for 2 period(s). The probability of prices consolidating into a less volatile trading range increases the longer the bands remain in this wide range.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1,090.1001,091.3601,077.0001,083.390 13,688
Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,120.44 1,170.50 1,197.28
Volatility: 18 14 19
Volume: 1,369 274 68
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
Summary
GOLD is currently 9.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAU= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 42 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that XAU= is currently in an oversold condition. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.
HEFFX Candlestick Analysis
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 1 white candles and 9 black candles for a net of 8 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 31 black candles for a net of 12 black candles.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
HEFFX Momentum
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
Stochastic Oscillator
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 9.1493. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 17.61. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security.
A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 92 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -124.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
MACD
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 21 period(s) ago.
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