Slow Growth in USA Economy

 Economic growth is expected to continue in the United States throughout the remainder of 2016, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in their Spring 2016 Semiannual Economic Forecast.

Expectations for the remainder of 2016 continue to be positive in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.

These projections are part of the forecast issued by the Business Survey Committee of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®). The forecast was presented today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and by Anthony S. Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

Manufacturing Summary

Fifty percent of respondents from the panel of manufacturing supply management executives predict their revenues will be 10.5 percent greater in 2016 compared to 2015, 18 percent expect a 14.2 percent decline, and 32 percent foresee no change in revenue. This yields an overall average forecast of 2.8 percent revenue growth among manufacturers for 2016. This current prediction is 1.3 percentage points below the December 2015 forecast of 4.1 percent revenue growth for 2016, but is 1.4 percent above the actual revenue growth reported for all of 2015. With operating capacity at 81.7 percent, an expected capital expenditure increase of 1 percent, an increase of 0.6 percent for prices paid for raw materials, and employment expected to remain the same for the balance of 2016, manufacturing is positioned to grow revenues while containing costs through the remainder of the year. “With 14 of the 18 industries within the manufacturing sector predicting revenue growth in 2016 when compared to 2015, U.S. manufacturing continues to move in a positive direction,” said Holcomb.

The 14 industries reporting expectations of growth in revenue for 2016 — listed in order — are: Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

The Manufacturing panel was also asked Special Questions related to the impact thus far in 2016 on their organization’s profits due to the strength of the US dollar, the net impact of the depressed prices of oil and related commodities, and the combined impact of both of these factors. Their responses are provided at the end of this report.

Non-Manufacturing Summary

Fifty-three percent of non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives expect their 2016 revenues to be greater by 8.5 percent as compared to 2015. Overall, respondents currently expect a 2.4 percent net increase in overall revenues, which is less than the 2.7 percent increase that was forecast in December 2015. “Non-manufacturing will continue to grow for the balance of 2016. Non-manufacturing companies continue to operate very efficiently as reflected by the high percentage of capacity utilization. Supply managers have indicated that overall costs have not been significant with pricing projected to increase 0.9 percent over the year. Overall employment is projected to grow slightly at 0.7 percent. Thirteen out of 18 industries are forecasting increased revenues which is less than the 15 industries that forecasted increased revenues last year.  The non-manufacturing sector will continue on the path of steady economic growth throughout the year,” Nieves said.

The 13 non-manufacturing industries expecting increases in revenue in 2016 — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Utilities.

The Non-Manufacturing panel was also asked Special Questions related to the impact thus far in 2016 on their organization’s profits due to the strength of the US dollar, the net impact of the depressed prices of oil and related commodities, and the combined impact of both of these factors. Their responses are provided at the end of this report.

OPERATING RATE

Manufacturing
Purchasing and supply managers report that their companies are currently operating on average at 81.7 percent of normal capacity, representing a slight increase from the 81.6 percent reported in December 2015, as well as an increase from the 79.5 percent reported in April 2015. The 11 industries reporting operating capacity levels at or above the average capacity of 81.7 percent — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Non-Manufacturing
Non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives report that their organizations are currently operating at 86.5 percent of normal capacity. This is 1.4 percent less than what was reported in December 2015 and higher than the 86 percent reported in April 2015. The following 11 industries are operating at capacity levels above the average rate of 86.5 percent — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; Finance & Insurance; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Information; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Public Administration; and Accommodation & Food Services.

PRODUCTION CAPACITY

Manufacturing
Production capacity in manufacturing is expected to increase 3.0 percent in 2016. This increase is greater than the 2.8 percent increase predicted in December 2015 for 2016, and also greater than the 1.9 percent increase reported in December 2015 for all of 2015. This reflects the continuing strength in the sector as 38 percent of respondents expect an average capacity increase of 10.9 percent, 7 percent expect decreases averaging 15.6 percent, and 55 percent expect no change. The 16 industries expecting production capacity increases for 2016 — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Printing & Related Support Activities; Machinery; Paper Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Non-Manufacturing
The capacity to produce products or provide services in the non-manufacturing sector is expected to increase 1.4 percent during 2016. This compares to an increase of 1.5 percent reported for 2015 and a prediction in December 2015 for an increase of 2.8 percent for 2016. For 2016, 22 percent of non-manufacturing respondents expect their capacity to increase by an average of 12.6 percent, and 7 percent of the respondents foresee their capacity decreasing by an average of 20 percent. Seventy-one percent expect no change in their capacity. The nine industries expecting to add to their production capacity in 2016 — listed in order — are: Construction; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Transportation & Warehousing.

PREDICTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURES — 2016 vs. 2015

Manufacturing
Survey respondents expect a 1 percent increase in capital expenditures in 2016. This is the same increase as the panel predicted in the December 2015 forecast for 2016. Currently, 30 percent of respondents predict increased capital expenditures in 2016, with an average increase of 24.3 percent, and the 21 percent who said their capital spending would decrease an average of 29.2 percent. Forty-nine percent say they will spend the same in 2016 as they did in 2015. The nine industries expecting increases in capital expenditures in 2016 compared to 2015 — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

Non-Manufacturing
Non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives are expecting to increase their level of capital expenditures 6.2 percent in 2016 compared to 2015. The 36 percent of members expecting to spend more predict an average increase of 26.6 percent. Sixteen percent of respondents anticipate a decrease averaging 21.2 percent. Forty-eight percent of the respondents expect to spend the same on capital expenditures in 2016 as in 2015. The 11 industries expecting an increase in capital expenditures in 2016 from 2015 — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Public Administration; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; and Retail Trade.

PRICES — Changes Between End of 2015 and April 2016

Manufacturing
In the December 2015 forecast, respondents predicted an increase of 0.1 percent in prices paid during the first four months of 2016; and they now report prices have decreased by 1.1 percent for the same period. The 21 percent who say their prices are higher now than at the end of 2015 report an average increase of 4.4 percent, while the 37 percent who report lower prices report an average decrease of 5.5 percent. The remaining 42 percent indicate no change for the period. Of the 18 manufacturing industries, the seven industries that reported an increase in prices paid for the first part of 2016 — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; and Machinery.

Non-Manufacturing
Non-Manufacturing respondents report that their purchases in the first four months of this year cost an average of 0.3 percent more than they cost at the end of 2015. This is 0.8 percentage point lower than the 1.1 percent increase predicted in December 2015 for the first four months of 2016. Thirty-four percent of the non-manufacturing respondents report the prices they paid increased an average of 3.4 percent in the first part of 2016. Twelve percent report price decreases averaging 6.7 percent. The remaining 54 percent indicate no change in prices paid in the first four months of 2016. The 10 industries reporting an increase in prices paid in the first part of 2016 — listed in order — are: Health Care & Social Assistance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Other Services.

PRICES — Predicted Changes Between End of 2015 and End of 2016

Manufacturing
When asked to predict 2016 price changes, 39 percent of respondents expect the prices they pay to increase by 4.9 percent for the full year of 2016 compared to the end of 2015. At the same time, 25 percent anticipate decreases averaging 5.2 percent. Including the 36 percent who expect no change in prices, survey respondents expect net average prices to increase by 0.6 percent for the entire year 2016, indicating that prices are expected to rise 1.7 percentage points over the remainder of the year. Out of 18 manufacturing industries, 10 are predicting increases in prices for all of 2016 in the following order: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Paper Products.

Non-Manufacturing
For 2016, non-manufacturing respondents expect the prices they pay to increase 0.9 percentage point when compared to the prices at the end of 2015. Given that respondents have reported that prices have increased 0.3 percent through April 2016, the prediction is for prices to increase 0.6 percentage point over the remainder of the year. Forty-seven percent of the respondents anticipate price increases averaging 3.8 percent. Twelve percent of the respondents expect price decreases of 7.2 percent, and 41 percent do not expect prices to change. The 11 industries expecting price increases in 2016 — listed in order — are: Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; Other Services; Utilities; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; and Construction.

EMPLOYMENT

Change in Overall Employment – Balance 2016

Manufacturing
ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey respondents forecast that manufacturing employment will remain at the current level on average through the end of 2016. Thirty-two percent of respondents expect employment to be 5.9 percent higher, while 20 percent of respondents predict employment to be lower by 9.9 percent. The remaining 48 percent of respondents expect their employment levels to be unchanged for the remainder of 2016. The 10 industries reporting expectations of growth in employment during 2016 — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products.

Non-Manufacturing
ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents forecast that employment will increase 0.7 percent during the balance of 2016. For the remaining months of 2016, 35 percent expect employment to increase 7.3 percent, 14 percent anticipate employment to decrease by 13.4 percent, and 51 percent expect their employment levels to be unchanged. The 10 industries anticipating increases in employment in the remaining months of 2016 — listed in order — are: Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Retail Trade.

BUSINESS REVENUES

Business Revenues Comparison — 2016 vs. 2015

Manufacturing
Looking ahead, expectations are for increased revenues in 2016 as purchasing and supply management executives indicate an overall net increase of 2.8 percent in business revenues for 2016 over 2015. This is 1.3 percentage points lower than the 4.1 percent increase forecast in December 2015 for all of 2016, and 1.4 percentage points higher than the 1.4 percent increase reported for 2015 over 2014. Fifty percent of respondents say that revenues for 2016 will increase an average of 10.5 percent over 2015. Conversely, 18 percent say their revenues will decrease an average of 14.2 percent, and the remaining 32 percent indicate no change. Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 14 are reporting expectations of growth in revenue during 2016 — listed in order — are: Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

Non-Manufacturing
Non-manufacturing respondents forecast that business revenues for 2016 will increase 2.4 percent compared to 2015. This is lower than the 3.2 percent increase predicted in December 2015 for 2016. The 53 percent of respondents forecasting better business in 2016 than in 2015 estimate an average revenue increase of 8.5 percent. This is in contrast to an average decrease of 16.5 percent forecast by the 12 percent who predict less business in 2016. The remaining 35 percent see no change in revenues for 2016. The 13 industries expecting an increase in revenues in 2016 — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Utilities.

SPECIAL QUESTIONS RELATED TO THE EARLY MONTHS OF 2016

We asked the panels to tell us, thus far in 2016: (1) has the strength of the US dollar had a negative, negligible, or positive impact on your organization’s profits; (2) has the net impact of the depressed prices of oil and related commodities been negative, negligible, or positive for your organization’s profits; and (3) how would you characterize the combined impact on your organization’s profits of the strength of the US dollar and the depressed prices of oil and related commodities?

Manufacturing
In response to the first Special Question relating to the impact on profits due to the strength of the US dollar, the panel indicated the following:

• Negative impact on organization’s profits: (32.3%)
• Negligible impact on organization’s profits: (35.9%)
• Positive impact on organization’s profits: (16.1%)
• Unsure: (15.7%)

In response to the second Special Question relating to the impact on profits due to the depressed prices of oil and related commodities, the panel indicated the following:

• Negative impact on organization’s profits: (21.4%)
• Negligible impact on organization’s profits: (20.5%)
• Positive impact on organization’s profits: (46.4%)
• Unsure: (11.6%)

In response to the third Special Question relating to the combined impact of the strength of the US dollar and the depressed prices of oil and related commodities, the panel indicated the following:

• Negative impact on organization’s profits: (27.6%)
• Negligible impact on organization’s profits: (22.2%)
• Positive impact on organization’s profits: (33.8%)
• Unsure: (16.4%)

Non-Manufacturing
In response to the first Special Question relating to the impact on profits due to the strength of the US dollar, the panel indicated the following:

• Negative impact on organization’s profits: (12.6%)
• Negligible impact on organization’s profits: (44.5%)
• Positive impact on organization’s profits: (13.6%)
• Unsure: (29.3%)

In response to the second Special Question relating to the impact on profits due to the depressed prices of oil and related commodities, the panel indicated the following:

• Negative impact on organization’s profits: (13.1%)
• Negligible impact on organization’s profits: (29.8%)
• Positive impact on organization’s profits: (46.1%)
• Unsure: (11%)

In response to the third Special Question relating to the combined impact of the strength of the US dollar and the depressed prices of oil and related commodities, the panel indicated the following:

• Negative impact on organization’s profits: (13.7%)
• Negligible impact on organization’s profits: (37.9%)
• Positive impact on organization’s profits: (30%)
• Unsure: (18.4%)

SUMMARY

Manufacturing

• Operating rate is currently at 81.7 percent of normal capacity.
• Production capacity is expected to increase 3.0 percent in 2016.
• Capital expenditures are expected to increase 1.0 percent in 2016.
• Prices paid decreased 1.1 percent through the end of April 2016.
• Prices of raw materials are expected to increase a total of 0.6 percent for all of 2016, indicating an expected increase of 1.7 percent in prices for the remainder of the year.
• Manufacturing employment is expected to remain unchanged on average through the end of 2016.
• Manufacturing revenues are expected to increase 2.8 percent in 2016.
• Overall, manufacturing is expected to exhibit a positive growth trend in 2016.

Non-Manufacturing

• Operating rate is currently 86.5 percent of normal capacity.
• Production capacity is expected to increase 1.4 percent in 2016.
• Capital expenditures are expected to increase 6.2 percent in 2016.
• Prices paid increased 0.3 percent through the end of April 2016.
• Prices were reported to have increased 0.3 percent in the first four months of the year and are expected to increase 0.6 percentage point for the rest of the year for a total net annual increase of 0.9 percent.
• Non-manufacturing employment is expected to increase 0.7 percent during the balance of 2016.
• Non-manufacturing revenues are expected to increase 2.4 percent in 2016.
• The non-manufacturing sector is projected to have continued growth in 2016.

*Miscellaneous Manufacturing’s items include products such as Medical Equipment and Supplies, Jewelry, Sporting Goods, Toys and Office Supplies.

**Other Services include: Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grant making; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services.

In addition to the forecast, the Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® is issued monthly on the first business day of each month and is considered by many economists to be the most reliable near-term economic barometer available. It is reviewed regularly by top government agencies and economic business leaders. The report, compiled from responses to questions asked of approximately 350 purchasing and supply executives across the country, tracks industrial production, new orders, inventories, supplier deliveries, employment, buying policies and prices. Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing*.

Covering the non-manufacturing sector, ISM^® debuted the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® in June 1998. The Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® is released on the third business day of each month, and is based on data received from purchasing and supply executives from 18 different non-manufacturing industries across the country. The Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services**; and Public Administration. The report covers business activity, new orders, backlog of orders, new export orders, inventory change, inventory sentiment, imports, prices, employment, and supplier deliveries.

About Institute for Supply Management^®
Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 48,000 members around the world manage about $1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business^®, its highly regarded certification programs and the newly launched ISM Mastery Model™. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

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The May Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring the May 2016 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Wednesday, June 1, 2016.

The May Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring the May 2016 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Friday, June 3, 2016.

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