We are looking ahead to modest employment creation of 4,000 jobs against 37,700 in March as the ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics) will announce April’s labour market data on 7th May. The unemployment rate likely goes up to 6.2% from 6.1% in MoM while the participation rate likely remained unchanged at 64.8%. Consumer and business confidence are expected to be subdued.We anticipate the employment market to remain soft in the near months as businesses look quite reluctant to invest amid the central bank uncertainty about borrowers’ response to low interest rates.The central bank cited falling business capex and resulting weak domestic demand as concerns at its April monetary policy meeting. We expect the unemployment rate to remain high in the medium term.Technicals and Derivatives watch:We figure out hanging man candle pattern formed on daily chart of AUDJPY pair with RSI (14) showing downward convergence to the price curve which is a strong confirmation of downswings. We don’t see any near strong support until rally tests 93.463 levels to bounce back and show strength again.As we are sensing bearish trend on the rallies of AUDJPY currency pair, thus one could get benefited from downswings in near future by taking shorts on futures of this pair. Hedgers should try to avoid exposure to adverse price movements in the underlying currency whereas Speculators has to take position in the market betting on the price movements on either side.Hedges or arbitrageurs become speculators if risk limits are not defined.
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