Friday’s equity market rally on the back of the goldilocks jobs numbers out of the US is finding it a bit of a challenge to carry through the positive price action to Monday morning, as a few notable developments over the weekend have left market participants somewhat jittery to start the new trading week. The greenback is on firmer footing, but the support lent from the decent April employment figures has so far been insufficient at sparking a meaningful breakout. While Friday’s US jobs numbers weren’t great, the print above the 200k mark did alleviate some concern the weakness experienced in March had seeped through to the beginning of the second quarter. Wednesday of this week will bring around the release of retail sales for the month of April, which will be another key data point in assessing whether the US economy was able to rebound back from what will likely turn out to be negative GDP growth in the first quarter. Consumer spending saw a sharp slowdown over the course of the first quarter, but if this week’s numbers can build in on the positive print seen in March, the big dollar would likely find further support as the economic landscape in the US brightens.
Chinese equities started the week on positive ground, with investor risk appetite bolstered by the People’s Bank of China announcing an interest rate cut in an effort to alleviate some of the downward pressure the domestic economy is facing. This is the third interest rate cut in the last six months, and follows just three weeks behind the central bank lowering the reserve ratio requirements of banks in order help smooth out monetary policy by insulating against any negative effects associated with China’s economic structural adjustments. The government is also likely concerned with the pace of consumer price increases within the domestic economy, as data over the weekend showed that CPI increased by half the pace the government is targeting for 2015, coming in with a 1.5% increase when compared to the last twelve months, missing analysts’ estimates of a 1.6% gain. Given most of the CPI gains were witnessed in food prices, there is a good likelihood further accommodative monetary policy adjustments will need to be made over the coming months, though the central bank will be walking a fine line so as not to promote economic distortion through excessive easing. The Shanghai Comp finished its session up 3.05%, while commodity-linked currencies such as the kiwi and aussie failed to witness any positive price action that usually accompanies the increase in risk appetite.
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