Following a shocking report from The Independent indicating a 55% Brexit to 45% Bremain poll, cable and US equities are tumbling to fresh lows as it appears – as Soros warned – Brexit fears are under-priced…
The campaign to take Britain out of the EU has opened up a remarkable 10-point lead over the Remain camp, according to an exclusive poll for The Independent.
The survey of 2,000 people by ORB found that 55 per cent believe the UK should leave the EU (up four points since our last poll in April), while 45 per cent want it to remain (down four points).
These figures are weighted to take account of people’s likelihood to vote. It is by far the biggest lead the Leave camp has enjoyed since ORB began polling the EU issue for The Independent a year ago, when it was Remain who enjoyed a 10-point lead. Now the tables have turned.
And what the banks believe is at stake in a Brexit vote scenario…
- BBVA: GBP/USD to drop to 1.20; EUR/GBP moves to 0.85-0.90
- BMO: GBP/USD moves to 1.33 and EUR/GBP moves to 0.83
- BOFAML: GBP/USD toward mid-1.20 area
- CITIGROUP: GBP/USD down 5% on the day, as much as 12% over following month
- CREDIT AGRICOLE: GBP/USD to drop to 1.30 or lower; EUR/GBP to trade close to 0.85 or higher
- DEUTSCHE BANK: GBP -10% on TWI basis; GBP/USD to 1.15 by year-end; EUR/GBP to 0.90
- GOLDMAN SACHS: GBP -10% on TWI basis; GBP/USD could move to ~1.15-1.30; EUR/GBP to ~0.90-0.95; EUR/USD to fall ~4%
- HSBC: GBP/USD to fall ~5-10%
- INTESA SANPAOLO: GBP/USD to 1.35-1.40; EUR/GBP to 0.80-0.85
- JPMORGAN: GBP/USD to fall to 1.32; EUR/GBP 0.85
- MORGAN STANLEY: GBP/USD to 1.30 by yr-end; EUR/USD could fall to 1.00
- NOMURA: GBP to fall ~10-15% on TWI basis
- NORDEA: EUR/GBP above 0.85 (+7%); EUR/USD below 1.10
- RABOBANK: GBP/USD at 1.26 in 1m; EUR/GBP at 0.86 in 1m
- RBC: GBP/USD to 1.15 by end of June
- SOCIETE GENERALE: GBP/USD to move through 1.35-1.30
- UBS: EUR/GBP may go to parity
- UNICREDIT: More than 10% drop vs USD on multi-week basis
- WELLS FARGO: GBP trade weighted value may decline as much as 8%-9% in near-term
As we warned overnight, the Brexit fearmongering appears to have backfired.
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