So… Trump stirs up the Middle-East by withdrawing from JCPOA and… The Dow gains 600 points (best week in 2 months), VIX tumbles to a 12 handle (lowest close since Jan), Oil rises just 1.25% on the week (but at 4 year highs), Gold managed a modest gain (the first weekly rise in a month) and The Dollar and The Long Bond end the week unchanged…
BTFINDWD!!
But it all started last week…
VIX was monkeyhammered to a 12 handle…
VIX lowest close since Jan..
The Dow found resistance at the 100DMA…
AAPL was set for the longest daily win streak since 2010… but closed lower today…
Symantec was clubbed like a baby seal..
TSLA stock remains decoupled from reality…
Healthcare-related stocks dipped then ripped on Trump’s announcement…
Bank stocks started to fade a little relative to the market in the last two days as the yield curve collapsed…
Treasury yields were very mixed on the week with the long-end lower and short-end higher…
Which meant massive flattening across the curve:
- 5s30s -6bps to 27bps (flattest since Aug 2007)
- 2s30s -5bps to 57bps (flattest since Aug 2007)
- 2s10s -2bps to 43bps (flattest since Sept 2007)
- 7s10s -2bps to 2.7bps (flattest on record)
- 10s30s -3bps to 13bps (flattest Jul 2007)
As CPI sparked a significant dump…
30Y Yields peaked midweek then were bid into the weekend…
Once again 30Y yields find resistance at around 3.20%…
10Y Yields rejected 3.00% again…
The Dollar Index closed the week flat as the early week bid evaporated on Thursday and Friday…
ARS was spanked early on before BCRA piled in with massive $1 billion intervention to rescue the day (but in context the bounce is marginal ahead of next week’s massive liquidity needs)…
Cryptocurrencies suffered this week as MtGox liquidation rumors, Nvidia forecasts, and a South Korean exchange raid sparked FUD…
The dollar’s wild ride left all commodities green on the week, though we note that WTI gave back a lot of the mid-week gains…
Finally, we leave it to Gluskin-Sheff’s David Rosenberg for some much-needed context…
The stock market has gone 74 days without making a new high but that hasn’t stopped the bulls from boasting about how it is up or flat six days in a row. I still say to sell into strength.
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) May 11, 2018
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