Survey of Analysts Results: UNICA Sugarcane Crush
Sugarcane crush volumes in the key Center-South region of Brazil in the second half of June are expected to total 43.43 Million mt, with mills remaining focused on ethanol production, a Platts survey of analysts showed Friday.
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Cane crush: 43.43 million metric tons (mt)
- Sugar production: 2.32 million mt
- Total ethanol production: 1.865 billion liters (ltr)
- Hydrous ethanol production: 1.119 billion ltr
- Anhydrous ethanol production: 755.64 million ltr
- Sugar mix: 43.15 %
- Ethanol mix: 56.85 %
The wider range of analysts’ expectations for cane crush spanned from 40.5 million to 44.6 million mt. The Brazilian sugarcane industry group UNICA is expected to release its bimonthly sugarcane harvest data next Wednesday.
“I expect second-half June cane crush to total between 43.5 million and 44.00 million metric tons and cane yield to be 129.5 kilograms per metric ton,” said Claudiu Covrig, senior agriculture analyst at Kingsman, an analysis unit of Platts, a leading global provider of energy and commodities information and benchmark prices.
His forecast of cane crush is within the analysts’ consensus. Covrig’s forecast of cane yield, as measured by total recoverable sugar (or ATR), is approximately 5.2 kg/mt higher than the 1H UNICA June estimate.
He said dry weather should have helped the cane to build up sucrose. For the second half of June, there were no crush days lost to rain and all the available mills were operating, he noted.
In terms of sugar mix expectations, Covrig foresees only a small recovery, with the sugar mix likely to be 43%, up from 42.29% actual mix recorded during the previous two-week period.
Hydrous ethanol continued to pay better than sugar in 2H of June, with sellers interested firstly in the cash spot ethanol market.
Considering analysts’ estimates at 2.32 million mt of sugar for 2H June, the cumulative total for the current season appears poised to be 12.28% lower than the previous crop at 9.08 million mt, down from 10.34 million mt.
Platts’ Kingsman poll showed analysts expect sugar mills to have focused on ethanol production, with ethanol representing 56.85% of the cane crush in the June 16-30 period, and sugar at 43.15%.
An average of analysts’ expectations points to sugar production of 2.32 million mt and total ethanol output of 1.865 billion liters, with hydrous ethanol output remaining greater than 1 billion liters.
Anhydrous ethanol production will likely recover to some 755 million liters, the survey showed, which would be the highest produced volume for the 2015/16 crop.
The focus on ethanol production, particularly on hydrous, is explained by the need to satisfy increasing demand from flex-fuel drivers for the standalone biofuel and the need for mills to capitalize faster.
Visit the Platts and Platts’ Kingsman websites for more information on sugar and biofuels.
Interviews may be arranged with the following sugar experts via Platts Communications: Platts Sugar Pricing Specialists: Nicolle Monteiro de Castro, Darren Stetzels, Beatriz Pupo, Reinout Geyssens, Alessandra Rosete; and Platts Sugar and Ethanol Analyst: Claudiu Covrig. If you would like to receive this on a regular basis, please select Agriculture at this alerts sign-up link.
*Kingsman is Platts’ agricultural business unit, acquired in 2012.
**In its bi-monthly cane harvest update, UNICA publishes a range of sugarcane harvest production metrics for Brazil’s Center-South region, also broken down into São Paulo and other states.
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