Australian Dollar:
The Aussie opens virtually unchanged today after experiencing a relatively lacklustre trading session yesterday. Upbeat Chinese HSBC flash manufacturing figures were released, however this printed only a touch higher than forecasts therefore failing to spur any AUD price action. In overnight markets positive US new home sales data and flash manufacturing PMI numbers were released, however after an initial dip in the AUD/USD to lows of 0.7675, the currency pair recovered in a swift fashion to reach highs of 0.7749. With the local economic calendar free of any announcements today the Australian dollar will look overseas for any influence, and commences trade today buying 77.32 US cents.
We expect a range today of AUD/USD 0.7690 – 0.7770
New Zealand Dollar:
The NZ Dollar started trade today in a familiar range, only slightly lower at NZD/USD 0.6851. With no significant data being released yesterday the Kiwi moved between intraday highs of 0.6874 and overnight lows 0.6812. Furthermore, with yet another clear economic docket upcoming for the local currency the NZD will struggle to find any stimulus today. Attention will most likely be directed to US GDP figures being announced later in the evening for any price driving catalyst, as traders patiently await local trade balance figures being released later in the week.
Great British Pound:
The Pound Sterling has fallen significantly against its major counterparts overnight as CBI Industrial Order Expectations for June were reported as being well below expectations. This has underlined the slowest growth in factory orders in the past two years, and commentators have attributed this to a slowdown in demands for exports due to a strong local currency. The Cable slid to overnight lows of GBP 1.5705 and opens this morning at 1.5723. Announcements expecting to have a notable impact on the local currency today are mortgage approval figures for May, and US GDP reports abroad.
We expect a range today of GBP/AUD 2.0290 – 2.0370
Majors:
With positive German and French flash manufacturing data reported yesterday, as well as Greece edging closer to a deal with its creditors, sentiment surrounding the bloc currency is currently quite positive. Euro finance ministers will once again meet today in order to discuss and hopefully come to a settlement that will sidestep a Greek default, and with Greece’s deadline expiring in a weeks’ time recent rhetoric from the ECB has signalled that there is a high probability of a resolution. In the US the Greenback found support off the back of new home sales data and a manufacturing index that both came in above forecast. Furthermore FOMC Member Powell stated that as the expectation is for the economy to strengthen later in the year a September rate hike is still on the cards, with a possible second hike in December. The EUR/USD commences trade lower today at 1.1159 due to US Dollar strength.
Data releases:
CNY: CB Leading Index m/m
CHF: UBS Consumption Indicator, SNB Quarterly Bulletin
EUR: German Ifo Business Climate, Eurogroup Meetings, Belgian NBB Business Climate
GBP: BBA Mortgage Approvals
JPY: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, SPPI y/y
USD: Final GDP q/q, Final GDP Price Index q/q, Crude Oil Inventories