The Clock Is Ticking On The Lifting Of Sanctions Against Iran

The UN world powers and Iran set the clock ticking Sunday on the accord placing limits on the nation’s nuclear work in return for access to Crude Oil and financial markets.

The formal “aAdoption” of the deal means that all sides have to begin delivering on the pledges they made 3 months ago.

For Iran it requires mothballing thousands of centrifuges, eliminating 95% of its enriched-Uranium stockpile and retrofitting a reactor. The US and Europe will make preparations to lift the sanctions, which will occur on “Implementation day,” once the Iranian measures are in place.

“Today marks an important milestone toward preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and ensuring its nuclear program is exclusively peaceful going forward,” US President Barack Hussein Obama said in a statement. “I am confident in the extraordinary benefits to our national security and the peace and security of the world that come with the successful implementation” of the accord.

One of the first steps will be a statement of intention by China, Iran and the US to work together modernizing Iran’s heavy-water reactor at Arak so it cannot  produce plutonium that could be used in a nuclear weapon, according to US officials who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity to discuss details of the deal’s implementation.

The agreement appears to have not diffused tensions between Iran and the West.

From missile tests to support for Syria’s regime and military coordination with Russia, Iran is exerting its power in the volatile region. US allies; Israel and Saudi Arabia said the nuclear accord will strengthen Iran even more.

Sanctions against Iran probably will be lifted within Q-1 of Y 2016, after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAE) has confirmed the nation has curtailed its nuclear work, diplomats said. Once the restrictions are removed, relief is expected to fuel economic growth by lowering barriers to Iran’s Crude Oil exports and ending the isolation of its banks.

Iran will offer about 50 energy projects to investors and plans to boost output by about 2.1-M BPD once the deal is in place. The nation, with the world’s 4th-largest Crude Oil reserves, pumped 2.8-M BPD last month, according to the data.

Japan, plans to 3X its imports of Iranian Crude Oil once sanctions are lifted, the Iranian Oil Ministry’s Shana news agency said on Saturday, citing Seyed Mohsen Ghamsari, director of international affairs at National Iranian Oil Co. Japan will increase purchases to 350,000 from 110,000 BPD, the agency said.

The US waivers will result in the lifting of sanctions that now restrict or penalize non-US companies for engaging in various economic activities, including buying Iranian Crude Oil and dealing with many Iranian banks.

For US companies, sanctions will be eased only for certain narrow categories. They include the export of civilian passenger aircraft, the import of spare aircraft parts and handicrafts from Iran, and some activities that subsidiaries of US companies can conduct overseas.

Mr. Obama told reporters on Friday that sanctions “related to ballistic missiles, human-rights violations, terrorism — those, we will continue to enforce.”

Sunday, Iran told the IAEA that it is ready to let monitors implement their most intrusive inspections regime once the agreement was implemented. Moreover, the government will begin providing more detailed design information about nuclear projects, the IAEA said in a statement on its website.

International monitors last week ended their 12-year investigation into the possible military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear past. Inspectors now have until 15 December to draft and present a final assessment of their inquiry.

Timeline to lifting sanctions:

Sunday, 18 October– “Adoption Day” for the accord signed with world powers. Parties to the agreement begin meeting their commitments.

Monday, 30 November — Iran prepares to end testing of advanced centrifuge cascades and store machines under IAEA seal.

Tuesday, 15 December — IAEA to present its assessment of Iran’s past nuclear activities, which board will use “with a view to closing the issue.”

Late Y 2015-early Y 2016 — Crude Oil sanctions to be lifted on “Implementation Day.”

Have a terrific week.

HeffX-LTN

Paul Ebeling

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