Narrower polls suggest markets aren’t priced for tail risk outcomes
Bank of America Merrill Lynch on the US election:
The timing of poll closings on election night will be important for investors as markets adjust expectations in real-time. Exit polls will start rolling in from 7pm ET (perhaps a bit earlier), and will be staggered until around midnight .The outcome could be apparent much earlier in the evening with key battleground states like Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia, and Pennsylvania all likely to release results by around 8pm. Conversely, a closer race implies a longer timeframe until the winner is known, and therefore, higher volatility on election night. Each of Trump’s viable paths to the White House include winning Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.
