The ‘Opening Up’ Of Iran, Who Benefits US Or Russia
If a nuclear deal is reached between the West and Iran, there may be a “new opening” in Iran, but it’s unclear whether the US or Russia will benefit more.
That will depend on whether the West engages with Iran beyond the deal to fundamentally change its relationship with the nation..
If the US exploits this opening to increase trade with Iran and by encouraging large-scale Western investment in its economy, the West would give Iran a much greater stake in maintaining good relations.
The result would be “positive incentives for Iran to moderate its behavior in the Middle East. If not Russia will take the full advantage.
Unless the accord ultimately leads to a fundamental transformation in Iran’s relationship with the West, Russia is likely to emerge as a Key beneficiary of the process analysts say.
Iran’s objectives in the region conflict directly with both Western interests and those of Key Western allies in the region, especially Saudi Arabia and Israel. Resolving these conflicts will require committed dialog, restraint on all sides, and real compromises, which will be difficult to achieve.
Should the West chooses to not engage with Iran, Russia stands to benefit in political and economic influence in the Middle East. Some analysts suggest that Russia would gain more from this partnership than Iran would, which means Russia’s incentive to take on this opportunity is even greater.
Moscow and Tehran would benefit from increased trade.
We have already seen some Iran-Russia deals such as more nuclear bases, the possibility that the S-300 will finally be delivered, and the Crude Oil-for-goods deal. But Moscow is also hoping that once the sanctions are lifted, it can resume arms transfers, Iran needs modern weapons.
Mehdi Sanayee, Iran’s Ambassador to Russia, noted that the 2 states plan to pump up bi-lateral trade from the current $5-B to $70-B a year in the near future. Moscow appears to be afraid of the West integrating with Iran as it believes that better Washington-Tehran relations will invariably weaken its position on the global stage.
If you look at this as a zero-sum game, Iran getting closer to the West is a weakening of Russia’s position.
In any case, it will be interesting to watch the next moves by Washington and Tehran, as well as Moscow after any nuclear deal.
By Reza Hashami, CEO, Global Modern Insurance, Inc.
Paul Ebeling, Editor
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